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There are a number of possible explanations for this.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.
Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”
Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.
Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.
“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.
Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.
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Ruby Williams’ birthday was not your average 18th. She celebrated it on the Klamath River, with a group of young people making a historic journey paddling from the river’s headwaters in southern Oregon to its mouth in the Pacific Ocean, just south of Crescent City, California. It marked the first time in a century that the descent has been possible, after the recent removal of four dams allowed the river to flow freely.
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Williams, together with fellow paddler Keeya Wiki, 17, spoke to CNN on day 15 of their month-long journey, which they are due to complete on Friday. At this point, they had just 141 miles (227 kilometers) of the 310-mile (499 kilometer) journey left to go and had already passed through some of the most challenging rapids, such as those at the “Big Bend” and “Hell’s Corner” sections of the river.
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“We are getting justice,” Wiki, who is from the Yurok Tribe, added. “And making sure that my people and all the people on the Klamath River can live how we’re supposed to.”
The Klamath River runs deep in the cultures of the native peoples living in its basin, who historically used dugout canoes to travel along it. They view it as a living person, a relative, who they can depend on — and in turn protect.
“It’s our greatest teacher, our family member,” said Williams, who is from the Karuk Tribe, which occupies lands along the middle course of the Klamath. “We revolve ceremonies around it, like when the salmon start running (the annual migration from the sea back to freshwater rivers to spawn), we know it’s time to start a family.”
Historically, it was also a lifeline, providing them with an abundance of fish. The Klamath was once the third-largest salmon-producing river on the West Coast of the US. But between 1918 and 1966, electric utility company California Oregon Power Company (which later became PacifiCorp), built a series of hydroelectric dams along the river’s course, which cut off the upstream pathway for migrating salmon, and the tribes lost this cultural and commercial resource.
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Sky-gazers may get a good chance to see fireballs streak across the night sky this week. Two meteor showers — the Alpha Capricornids and Southern Delta Aquariids — will reach their peak and another is ramping up.
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If you stay up later, you’ll be able to see the Southern Delta Aquariids reach peak activity at 3 a.m. ET on Wednesday, said Lunsford. The Southern Delta Aquariids, which also are most visible in the Southern Hemisphere, make for a stronger shower than the Capricornids; people located in parts of the Northern Hemisphere such as the US can expect to view up to 10 to 15 meteors per hour, while those in the Southern Hemisphere may see 20 to 25 per hour.
The Aquariids appear to stream from the southern part of the Aquarius constellation, which is around 40 degrees east of the Capricorn constellation, according to Lunsford: “They’re going to kind of do a battle, shooting back and forth at each other.”
Both showers will be visible through August 13, though there is some disagreement about the date on which their peaks will occur. While experts at the American Meteor Society say peak activity will occur Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, those at NASA say it will happen Wednesday night going into Thursday.
“The time of a meteor shower peak is not constant from year-to-year. It can vary by plus or minus a day or two,” Cooke said.
But missing the peak, according to Lunsford, is nothing to fret about. “It’s not a real sharp peak …You can go out (on) the 31st or the 29th and see pretty much the same activity.”
For the best viewing, avoid areas with bright lights and objects that could obscure your view of the sky, such as tall trees or buildings. Picking a spot with a higher altitude, like a mountain or hill, may make it easier to spot these showers.
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